Tuesday, July 12, 2011

National decision-making must improve the efficiency of the euro area

National decision-making must improve the efficiency of the euro area
 
The euro-zone needs to strengthen its institutions and make its national decision-making processes more efficient in order to strengthen the euro, European Central Bank Executive Board Member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said Tuesday in a guest commentary to German daily Handelsblatt.
"To say it clearly I'm not in favor of a tax union or a transfer union. I'm only warning that the risk of transfers increases through inefficient decisions," Bini Smaghi wrote.
Bini Smaghi once more suggested that the euro-zone should issue debt through a "supranational" agency which would oversee issuance and make sure that agreed-to budget and debt plans are adhered to. Such an agency would serve as a true "debt brake," he said.
However, he ruled out the idea of using so-called "Eurobonds" as a way to pay for the debts of member states in the event that they reach their debt ceiling and are required to make use of the euro-zone bailout mechanism or consolidate fiscally.
"Every state must pay for its fiscal policy itself," Bini Smaghi said.
Given the need for a stronger decision-making process within the euro-zone, Bini Smaghi said that a "currency union is also a political union."




Italian, Spanish and German government bonds yields increased difference

Italian, Spanish and German government bonds yields increased difference

Italian and Spanish bonds continued to slide Tuesday, with the extra yield demanded by investors to buy them--instead of safe haven German bunds--rising to euro era highs as contagion fears gathered pace.
Yield on the benchmark 10-year Italian bond rose 22 basis points to 5.88%, pushing the yield spread over similar-dated German bunds to a new high of 330 basis points.
The move comes as Italy prepares to sell EUR5 billion of bonds on Thursday, with the country also scheduled to sell EUR6.75 billion of 12-month treasury bills later Tuesday.
While the treasury bill sale should not pose a challenge, investors will be keeping a close eye on the yields at the auction.
Spanish bonds were also sharply lower, with yield on the benchmark 10-year bond climbing 21 basis points to 6.22%, widening the spread over German bunds to a new euro era high of 361 basis points.



Global sovereign debt risk is too much trouble

Global sovereign debt risk is too much trouble Risks to sovereign debt in Europe and beyond pose the top problem for the global financial system, and banks, governments and central banks must prepare for a sustained period of volatility, top officials from the Canadian and Italian central banks said. "Sovereign risk has emerged as the main challenge to global financial stability," Bank of Canada Gov. Mark Carney and Bank of Italy Managing Director Fabio Panetta wrote in a commentary posted Monday on the Financial Times website. "This issue is not limited to Europe," they said. "With high and rising debt levels in most advanced economies, the risk-free status of sovereign debt is now in question." Carney is chairman of the Bank for International Settlement's Committee on the Global Financial System, and Panetta chaired a study group of the committee on sovereign-credit risk. They wrote that worsening sovereign creditworthiness hurts banks but that "actions by banks and the official sector can mitigate these effects." Banks should diversify their government-debt holdings, increase their capital and find stable funding sources, Carney and Panetta wrote. Governments, they said, must "step up efforts to return public finances to more solid long-term paths," and regulators must look at policies that encourage banks to hold large quantities of public debt, while ensuring maximum transparency of these holdings.

Monday, July 11, 2011

Canada To Ship Home Afghan Materiel Via Kuwait

Canada will use air and port facilities in Kuwait to help ship back home military materiel used during its nine-year combat mission in Afghanistan, Defense Minister Peter MacKay said Monday.

"Kuwait is an influential partner in the region and we are very pleased that this agreement has been reached for the benefit our respective countries," MacKay said in a statement.

He was speaking after he signed a deal during a two-day visit to Kuwait for logistical support from the Gulf nation.

Canada officially ended its nine-year combat mission in Afghanistan on Thursday, closing the curtain after the deaths of 157 troops.

The departure of nearly 3,000 soldiers, who took on some of the heaviest fighting in the southern province of Kandahar, comes as Western forces begin to announce gradual drawdowns of troops ahead of a full withdrawal in 2014.

After spending more than $11 billion on the war and with popular support waning at home, most of the Canadian soldiers, based mainly in the dangerous battleground of Kandahar, have packed up and gone home.

"The movement of equipment and vehicles from Afghanistan requires access to both an airport and sea terminal for the transhipment of materiel back to Canada," the Canadian defense ministry said in a statement.

"The establishment of this support presence in Kuwait allows this to happen in a safe and controlled environment."

Until last year, Canada was using a base situated in Dubai to support its operations in Afghanistan. But it was forced to leave the base amid differences with the United Arab Emirates over increasing commercial flights between the two nations.

MacKay recalled that Canada had deployed some 4,000 troops during the first Gulf War in 1991, and "our friendship has grown stronger over the past twenty years," he added.

A separate Canadian training mission involving 950 troops will continue to work in Kabul with Afghan security forces.

Canada will also continue to give aid to Afghanistan, with its overall involvement between now and the end of 2014 expected to cost around $700 million a year.

USD/CAD analysis 12 July 2011

USD/CAD analysis 12 July 2011
 
Underpinned by growing investor risk aversion, softer commodity & oil prices (Nymex crude settled down $1.05 yesterday at $95.15/bbl). Data focus: 1230 GMT Canada May international merchandise trade. USD/CAD daily chart positive-biased as stochastics have turned bullish from oversold; negative MACD histogram bars contracting. Resistance at 0.9695 (yesterday's high, matching Wednesday's reaction high and confluence of 55-day and 100-day moving averages); breach would expose upside to 0.9825 (June 29 high), then 0.9885 (June 28 high) and 0.9913 (June 27 high). Support at 0.9654 (hourly chart), then at 0.9599 (yesterday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.9569-0.9565 band (Friday's low-Thursday's low), then 0.9509 (May 11 reaction low), 0.9436 (April 29 bottom) and psychological round-numbered level of 0.9400.